Russia's Ascendancy
Russia's ascendancy may have had it's initial movements harnessed to the aspirations of Peter the Great, but I am unsure which adjective would be bested suited for a discussion of the Russian Federation under the leadership of President Vladimir Putin. Perhaps, Vladimir the Formidable, works best.
We have been brought to this collective moment in history because of our diddling around and dithering about with NATO - which at this point, should be called "Not so fast". Our fascination with growth from an original twelve members to an addition of nineteen members have allowed this "Partnership for Peace" to create a pincer grasp on the map around the large land mass known as Russia.
Russia - because that bear is a Grizzly - has responded with the Shanghai Five - which became the Shanghai Cooperation Organization when Uzbekistan joined in 2001. There is also BRICS - which is a growing powerhouse of intrigue and financials. And there are the relationships which exist, those of which we might still be unaware. smile
The Arab League doesn't count, because like the story of "The Three Little Pigs", their own wolves are constantly burning the houses down, and they seem incapable of impacting Africa or quelling unrest across the greater Muslim world, in the near and foreseeable future. So take them off the geopolitical chess board for this discussion.
But my belief is the ascendancy of Russia dates back to the days of Admiral Sergei Gorshkov and a time when Soviet leadership set a firm policy to establish a superior blue-water Navy. And although the Soviets had humiliated America by sending the first human into orbit (Yuri Gagarin) and secondarily creating a large scale American neurosis regarding space travel, they pivoted rather quickly to the more practical considerations of Naval fleet assets and missile stockpiles. For our part, it is possible we squandered billions of dollars by flooding universities with research grants and being overly generous with the NASA budget. While we did this, the Russians steadily built up their missile stockpiles, improved on them, and seeded their research dollars like Ovid's "Serpent's Teeth" into Fleet assets.
"When a deadly serpent's teeth are sown in the ground, warriors spring from the bloody soil."
Military collaboration with Iran is evident in that Russia will be providing them with sixteen SU-35 fighter jets within the next two years. And Iran, for their part, just placed vertical launch silos for Naval air defense missiles on one of their ships. So this relationship remains interesting.
On small scale, Russia just sent their Baikal aircraft on its maiden voyage - and it is a rather modest multi-purpose aircraft. So while the Akula class Leopard K-328 just made an appearance on the waters and the Baikul took to the skies, my concern lies elsewhere.
What class of submarine are the Russians developing "in miniature" - at a location which is unknown to us, and masked from our geospatial surveillance capabilities? And how long before this new class of submarine escapes detection as it moves through our choke points along the sea lanes of commerce? Because if Russia is capable of going big - they are certainly capable of going small regarding stealth capabilities. But information of this nature, will be carefully guarded within the SCIF of the Kremlin.
Arseniy Konovolav may have been our asset, a man turned for the usual dumb reason: money. But it is doubtful he provided any intelligence of actionable and operational value regarding Russia's Naval fleet and missile stockpiles.
swoffordwrites@gmail.com
Comments
Post a Comment