Iran: Law of Unintended Consequences


The festering cluck (wink) started much earlier, of course.  President Donald J Trump decided to rename the Gulf of Mexico as "The Gulf of America".  The whole thing was silly, of course, because it was totally unnecessary.   UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the Laws of the Sea) allows for territorial control of 12 nautical miles from a coastal baseline with a sovereign right for regulation and use of resources.  The remainder? It is a vast network of sea lanes traversed from day to day by the global commerce necessary to sustain the world's population.  The English Channel alone, supports traffic from five hundred ships per day transiting between the North Sea and the Atlantic Ocean.

Fast forward.

Today, dominating by restriction along the Strait of Hormuz - we have this: United States Fleet assets. It actually is a beautiful image, isn't it?


But because Iran first seized the Strait of Hormuz demanding tolls for passage; to be followed by a U.S. blockade of the choke point, we now have Yemen threatening to also close Bab al Mandeb Strait.

It continues to teeter-totter back and forth. On 22 April, the IRGC boarded this vessel:



  

And on the same day,  Somalians issued a statement regarding government-sanctioned piracy and threats against any Israeli-flagged vessel seeking safe passage through the Bab el Mandeb strait.  They essentially told Yemen, "We've got this!"


 

It escalated operationally on 25 April with  an oil tanker which was attacked and successfully boarded.  The attackers took control of the vessel and moved it 77 nautical miles southward into Somalia's territorial waters. This attack marks the second one near Somalia in a week.




Lloyd's List is monitoring ongoing chatter in Sana'a regarding imposition of passage fees for ships transiting the Red Sea; similar to what Tehran was threatening with the Strait of Hormuz. Collection of fees is a substantial means of exerting and extending sovereignty; destroying existing maritime understandings;   and it creates an economic de facto pressure point using the choke points as bargaining chips .  Crude cartography already exists.



But just as important - the network of internet cables which travel through the sea beds! Let that lil' thought sink in.  All of this - is made more vulnerable.




And as France has just announced the withdrawal of all of their gold reserves held at the Federal Bank in New York, and Italy continues to block the landing of military aircraft - we still have the overshadowing and much bigger cluster regarding our sea lanes of passage.

The natural and understood order of things is in disarray.  And since the White House will never have me on speed dial - let me merely offer my own contemplation regarding that what was presumed to be a fairly easy task has brought my nation to a place of insurmountable challenges.

There should be one, and only one thing "on the table".   And... suck in your breath... it is not the nuclear ambitions of Iran.  The priority should be a memorandum of agreement that the sea lanes will remain open, vibrant, and navigable as they were at the beginning of the year.  We must take hold of the only "win" which is a necessary re-set for any other goal to be accomplished.  Restoration of the rule of law on the high seas must be prioritized.

swoffordwrites@gmail.com




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