Kill Chain Algorithms
It is the work of calculating potentialities. We calculate based on the known, the quantifiable, and the empirical. We discuss Lone Wolf attacks; how to recognize the wolf. And then... Bourbon Street. Intelligence failed the American people.
Islam is an ancient rebel. And in the lineage of Muhammad, a man with a kunya of "raider". This was a war against the prevailing culture by a solidifying doctrine. And it is the war which is still being fought on multiple fronts today. Islam is not weakened in the West. It is merely confronted and dealt with by a containment field otherwise known as Democracy.
We focus on Gaza. Scarcely do we contemplate how Islam rises in force in the Sudan. I have viewed scenes of ordinary men killed en masse in extraordinary manner. The cries of the rulers of the bloody trenches cry out, "Allahu Akbar!" As I always say, "The Allahu Shit Bar is open today." And the bar is open across the globe - in remote areas where there is no cell phone access; and in places like Syria, where things are bloody enough.
We still remain far removed within the general population with what is occurring in Syria. A nicely attired Al Qaeda suit approaches the podium at the United Nations. Sophistry prevails. And everyone - and I mean everyone - wants to control this important land bridge. So a terrorist is allowed to speak. Our government would prefer we remain unaware. I am aware, of the brutality against Christians, Alawites, and Shi'a inside Syria's bloody borders.
So why not? Why not go ahead and focus on Israel and Gaza? On 7 October cowardice enters the annals of Hamas as bravery. Savagery is lauded as chivalry. And creating human catastrophe for political leverage became a reality. Again and again: Islam ambushes. It is the only play that they have and they play it well within an asymmetrical battlespace. All of it began with an activated leadership kill chain seated comfortably in Qatar. And the fact is, that kill chain algorithms are more important than Bourbon Street lone wolves. He is dead. Another one has already arisen to take his place.
In the West, in a post-attack environment we drill down into the personality, social media posts, daily habits and associates of the spree killer. But we have neglected to determine at which point in time x location x influence the individual first entered the chain. We are as stale as the crime drama, "Without a Trace" which tracked back the movements of the individual who had gone missing. Retrogression is the flurried activity of our alphabet agencies after another successful attack. This is a shame.
Do we have in our possession a workable tool, a kill chain algorithm which is not based on retrogression but rather, on point of conception of attack? Plug into the algorithm that mild-mannered clerk who seems worrisome. Let the algorithm perform a rapid sortie to determine which link, if any, has caused the individual to actively enter the kill chain. The results, might spit that individual right back into their boring little life; none the wiser. And that is always the preferred result. But we need the other outcomes too.
In my personal library, the same literary chain used by the Bourbon Street attacker. Other selections on my shelf are chains into recruitment and covert cell activities. Within e mails from two decades ago - kill chains. My journalism friendships? Some individuals reside within various chains whether it be supply or demand. Everything has been weighted with a percentage. Some friendships (very happily) are in the zero to one percent range. Others, calculate rather high probabilities for future actions, or in one startling case, a historical action which took place in Chechnya, shared in confidence. Other friendships merely provide a good meal and a great "women's party" on Friday nights, or participation in an Eid al Fitr meal. These are truly the best of all times! smile But things have never settled lightly into my responsible hand.
Perhaps the algorithm exists: a model of predictive analysis which spits out a percentage; a model which is not only insightful and intuitive, but one with great imagination. Because at the end of the day, every single successful terror attack succeeds because the imagination of the attacker outpaced our own capabilities.
We need the algorithm.
Comments
Post a Comment