Backing Down on Iran
"War is a cruelty, and you cannot refine it." General William Tecumseh Sherman
The international pushback was effective. The Trump administration has taken a step back.
Operation Midnight Hammer was a great strategy. America bought time. This is what we always do regarding Iran; we shave the beard of the Grand Ayaollah a bit, remove a few whiskers. But for the most part, an incremental strategy is not a strategy. War must be swift and with the use of overwhelming force. A government must be brought to its knees, and then made to crawl to the signatory table for the peace treaty.
A different government was brought to it's knees on January 3, 2026 with the arrest of President Maduro and his spouse,. It took a slice out of an Achilles tendon. Between military buildup in the Caribbean and the actual cost for a massive strike force, the cost for this operation is estimated to be $800 billion U.S. dollars.
Naturally, Venezuela's acting president, Delcy Rodriguez, has had a "Kumbaya, my Lord, Kumbaya" moment. Because "...someone's crying Lord, Kumbaya." Not wishing to be plucked from her sleeping quarters, the oil is now flowing from Venezuela. Come to think of it, maybe we actually took a slice of the Venezuela's liver too. Hobbled, and now with a rich bed of opportunity.
But because war is cruel, we do not go to war for injustices. We took a can opener to Iraq and Afghanistan after 9/11. Both nations had negligible ties to the non-state actors. Undeniably, the cultural template appears to have germinated within The Kingdom. George W. chose to hold hands with Crown Prince Abdullah at his Crawford Ranch on 25 April 2005 as they strolled through the bluebonnets. This was a despicable moment for me.
9/11 brought incalculable loss to the survivors of those who died on that day. But what America lost on 9/11 cannot be compared to the overall loss of life of oath keepers over the next two decades.
https://www.military.com/daily-news/2022/08/29/wars-iraq-and-afghanistan-have-killed-least-500000-people-according-report.html
The loss of life, the carnage was horrific on 9/11. And yes, Saudi Arabia has other tricks up their sleeves. But my personal belief is that a robust component of Special Forces would have been sufficient to take out the major non-state actors and threats which their networks posed. The Pentagon under the Bush administration offered a war plan inadequately strategized (first) within the Intellectual Battlespace. They must have channeled McNamara, who had a uni-focus on numbers with the belief that an overwhelming numbers of troops would produce a victory The legacy of his stupidity is on a wall in Washington, D.C. and my hand has touched that wall. We embraced a failed model even as the deceased continue to stand witness against our foolhardiness. And while we should maintain a spirited animosity against our enemies and their threats, after 9/11 we chose to dump hundreds of thousands of troops across two hostile landscapes, which if debriefed properly, would show that we barely nudged the needle within both of these nations. From the beginning, this was a poorly conceived response to 9/11.
Because war is cruel, we also do not go to war for human rights abuses. If we are to engage this battle, why not start with China? And then let's sweep across North Korea. But why stop there? Begin a war with Sudan. There is no need for a bridge or a quarterdeck. Let Amnesty International take charge of the cluster map.
I am truly sad for the loss of lives for the protesters in Iran. Angry, that the West offers a yarn to the helpless Persian kittens and tells them to play with it. This is always an exercise in futility. And I actually consider it cruel to extend hope where there is little chance for the fire-starters to do much more then set their own hair on fire with anticipation of the return of a dynasty. Iran has a dynasty. It is called the Grand Ayatollah community.
Our unstinting support for the protests in Iran actually harms them. Practicality requires discretion and not bravado. I did the same, when Sudan was moving toward a coup. I sent a back channels message to a very powerful man. His family had been on the streets and involved in the protests. "I see women and children in the crowds. The children need to be in school. The women must remain inside the home." His wife had stood at her threshold observing the protests and found herself the recipient of one rifle cartridge which tore through her colon and another which lodged in her abdomen. She survived - which in itself, was a miracle. There was never a time where I sent up a "Rah rah rah!" for the protesters. We were shown the romantic pictures by our media. I was looking at brains on the pavement.
This somewhat vague offer to Iran's protesters that help is on the way is now circling the drain of bad ideas. You shouldn't bullshit yourself into a war but neither should you attempt to bullshit yourself out of a war plan that should have never made it past Joint Chiefs of Staff and Congress. President Trump has now assumed a watchful posture. I am relieved.
What is happening in Iran is not a Revelation 16:8 moment. And other nations, have laid hold of the Fourth Angel.
swoffordwrites@gmail.com
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