Live Blogging of Operation Epic Fury

10:00 a.m.

The journalist is calling it "War Games" because I doubt we will move the needle.  Of course, I sincerely hope that I am wrong.

In the skies over Tabriz, Ahvaz and Qom, three Israeli Hermes Drones along with one U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone in southern Iran are shot down.

"Made in Germany" does not survive the battle.  At least that is the what is noted on one of the semi-destroyed components.  The videos I am viewing from a Telegram account cannot be downloaded to my computer.  But then again, I am a classic TechTard.  

Palm Island and Burj Khalifa in Dubai are being targeted.  And if the videos are accurate, Dubai is taking a bit of a beating. These are direct strikes in commercial districts.

Grand Ayatollah al Khamenei is going to deliver a message shortly. And per Iranian television, Iran is unleashing hypersonic ballistic missiles against Israel. 

Any who have an interest in the Telegram channel may make the approach in my email:

swoffordwrites@gmail.com

11:30:  As threatened earlier, Tehran struck the target rich environment of Palm Island in Dubai. And they also claim they will target Burj Khalifa.  This would be the time to leave the tower, folks.

There are videos of Israel's wounded being moved to the underground hospital. If memory serves me, it is a converted parking garage.

14:30  

Images show large crowds in Mashhad shouting "Death to America". Suicide drones heading to Saudi Arabia.  Image of a residential tower in Bahrain which houses Americans has massive flames climbing the structure.  

Images below, of drones destroyed by Iran.

 

It has been reported that the AN/FP-132 early warning anti-ballistic radar with a range of 5,000 kilometers was destroyed in Qatar during Iran's ballistic missile attack. A small number of these radars exist in the region. By detecting ballistic missiles ascending into the atmosphere, Israel could have had 7 to 10 minutes before impact.

I cannot confirm the news attached to the image above.

Commentary:

As a journalist seated at my desk I opposed this attack based on two decades within the Intellectual Battlespace where, unlike many analysts, I have not been merely seated at my desk.  But I have had extensive interface and networking within the Muslim community.  My work has involved a combination of ethnography and HumInt.

Killing the Grand Ayatollah is not necessarily a "win".  Can we kill a system of belief deeply rooted in the seventh century?  And that belief, has a line of succession (no differently than when Lyndon B Johnson took his oath of office on an aircraft after the assassination of President Kennedy). 

And are we now dealing with the law of unintended consequences because we do not understand the terrain of the mind?  It is too early to tell.  But again, I call these events initiated by us "War Games" and not real war.  But it could morph to real war - an asymmetrical one - on our soil.

Be vigilant in public, please.

Who pays?  Will we pay for the destroyed infrastructure and industry of our allies if this thing goes sideways badly?  And how does the POTUS address the nation should an Iranian cell unleash a unique form of Hell on our own population?    Since we bombed a school with little girls (most of the deceased in the first grade) what makes us imagine the same will not be meted back to us?

Nobody is asking me, of course.  But - I believe not only was this the wrong moment in time but I also believe it to be a wrong course of action.  Take it or leave it.  I write... opinion.  I lay no claim to the truth.

14:55

U.S. Consulate in Erbil, Iraq is in flames under bombardment.  Screams on the streets.  Not good.

15:00

I watched the video attached to the narrative below.  And yes, a drone flew through the building and came out on the other side.  It reminded me of 9/11.  But this would be in Bahrain. 

"The targeted hotel in the scene above is the Grand Air Hotel, which is frequented by senior U.S. Army officers as it is located near the headquarters of the U.S. Fifth Naval Fleet."

I am bracing - really bracing - for an attack on U.S. soil.

15:16

Enlarge this one. It is beautiful in a very frightening way. Almost looks like a giant squid moving across the canopy.

https://x.com/mhmiranusa/status/2027774656900485301

20:00

Reports are that the daughter, son-in-law, and granddaughter of Grand Ayatollah Khamenei are also deceased.

A hacking group states they have taken control of the gas stations in Jordan and none are able to refuel their vehicles.

Reports are emerging that Jebel Ali Port in the UAE has suffered damage.

Haifa - is said to be the next target for a missile barrage from Tehran.

Commentary:

Have we made things more dangerous for us in the future?  If Iran spins out of control, devolves into chaos, will it become unmanageable from both a political and military standpoint?  And how many years will be required for the rebuilding of structures which have suffered damage within the Gulf States?  I ask this - because the first twenty-four hour cycle of our aerial campaign against Tehran has also inflicted pockets of significant damage to the real estate of our allies in the Gulf.

I certainly hope President Trump does not prematurely take his victory lap like President George W. Bush who landed on an aircraft carrier sporting a huge "Mission Accomplished" banner, only to find that the devil was in the details.