The Brinkmanship Continues


Iran's diplomatic posture has always resembled a retirade.  It has worked well for them. And for our part, an American POTUS who is all-or-nothing regarding negotiations.  He doesn't know the meaning of the word "sculpt".  But as some of our assets return to home base because of refueling issues, maybe he will begin to understand how Tehran conducts vibrant (non) negotiations.  They have managed this for years.

There are interesting unconfirmed reports:

China is sending their Naval Destroyers  Tangshan (DDG),  Frigate Daqing (DDG)  and the Taihu replenishment ship to join the Moscow-Tehran naval exercise focused on shutting down the traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.  This is classic choke point theory.  

But of greater importance, is that if the Liaoning-1 is chugging toward the Sea of Oman they are taking their top tier technology which allows them to analyze what is the "untraceable" data - electromagnetic waves coming off our stealth fighters giving signal to location; and of course, location of other vital assets.   This is a maritime intelligence behemoth.




Nothing will happen today.  Iran has not even issued a NOTAM. 

But it is interesting that North Korea has taken this moment in time to let us know about their latest toys:  

their new missile launching systems with an approximate range of 500 kilometers - which utilize AI support and can fire guided or unguided missiles.



Should we attack Iran - it will be interesting to see if the millions of Shi'a who reside within Germany... South Korea... Vietnam... Pakistan... Syria... will become instant Sepahi and rise up in defense, not so much of a nation - but of an idea.

To be safe -  I think I will top off my gas tank tonight.  The markets will begin to react.


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