47  Meets   47

In a suspension of digital existence reside the active imaginary experiences from the best  our Republic has to offer.  And no greater blathering about can be found than in what are/our ubiquitous "think tanks". 

I always refer to them as "thunk tanks" - because they always "thunk that they got it right".  The link below is best served with a Pinot Mariafeld, because it is a loosely clustered happy stomp compared to the grapes of wrath which Iran is now offering to the U.S. and her Middle East allies.

https://www.hudson.org/foreign-policy/ayatollahs-regime-crumbling-michael-doran

47 has now met 47.

Our 47th President of the United States has now discovered the "Class of 47".  Because undoubtedly, some of the men in the image taken 47 years ago are now the same men holding senior military leadership positions in the IRGC.  The passion is still there.  And combined with a seasoned maturity, I am not taking note of a "crumbling" of the regime.

It has been 47 years since Ruhollah Khomeini entered Tehran on February 1, 1979.  The peacock had been plucked and in December 1979,  the Islamic Republic of Iran came into existence with a new Constitution.   

Since that time - only two men have held fast to the reins of power.  Ruhollah Khomeini was succeeded by Ali Hosseini Khamenei,  who was the Supreme Leader of Iran until his assassination. There has been 47 years of unbroken leadership.  And  thirty-seven years of leadership by the latter.    And yet - there are those who imagine it would be such an easy task to foment internal tumult, regurgitate  thousands of citizens onto the streets,  and bring the Shi'a chain of command to their knees.

What we did observe was mass murders and rapes, incarceration of protesters. Evin prison is probably bulging at the seams.

Go ahead and pass me the Nebiollo.  And because my mouth is becoming dry even thinking about what I will write next, include a plate of pear slices with a mild Havarti or cheddar cheese to wash down the bitterness. 

We have actuaries for everything, of course.  Americans like mathematics.

https://actuary.defense.gov/

But I am afraid we did not bring the correct risk management teams into the quarterdeck prior to determining the actuary tables related to war.  We looked at launch pads and missile stockpiles. Our myopia is astounding.

Michael Doran opines,   "No matter what happens now, there is no scenario in which the Islamic Republic survives 2026 with its power intact."

I am not in the habit of discrediting others, because I am fairly pragmatic.  We manage to discredit ourselves without any goddamn help.  But I think it important that we do not discard what we read, but  at a later time, review what has been consumed to see if the analyst... fellow... for he's a jolly good fellow...  present prescient thought which at a later date intersects and interacts with verifiable data sets.   

Michael Doran ends his thoughts speaking of a "clear trajectory".  And while he sees blue skies, I am looking at billows of black smoke across the Gulf States and a choke point which is the wagging finger teaching us a lesson.

I would like to present the alternative trajectory.

There will be no official ceasefire and cessation of hostilities.  The United States will just quietly leave the battlespace and a great victory will be declared based on a narrow mathematical assessment.

The Strait of Hormuz will re-open with conditions and a new model of doing business determined by the IRGC.

It will take our Department of State several years to repair the damage; the ill-will which will be extended by NATO and our Middle East partners.  We bent them over.  They will not easily forget it.

Iran's place in the world is about to shift dramatically and the nation will be courted by new partners which in the past were reticent to engage transnational business with the Republic. Everybody likes a winner.

China and Russia will become more predatory against U.S. foreign policy endeavors and seek to offer viable economic opportunities to new partners.

Domestically, our economy will take a pounding.  This instability and vulnerability will be most acutely noted within an emerging young adult workforce seeking to establish themselves within the economic corridors of our nation.   Corridors will become coffins.  And young Americans just might experience a cremation of their hopes and dreams.

As I said before,  starting a conflict is the easy part.  Nobody quite does shock-and-awe like the United States of America.  The difficult part?   Explaining this to our adult children when they cannot find a job, afford a home, nor afford an upgrade to an newer vehicle.  They will be the new "Village People" - but without the Y.M.C.A. 

In December, deconstruct my thoughts; take me down; dismantle what I place on the page.  But for this moment in time - I see an entirely different trajectory.  There are no blue skies.  This is the scarier version.