A Chastisement with Scorpions

The story is worthy of an Elizabethan theater. And the tale unwinds like one of the works of the playwright William Shakespeare.  The elements are all there:  a new king,  the senior statesmen who served his powerful father, the companionable fools who now accompany the king, and a very sudden fracture of a kingdom on the heels of one ill-advised speech.

https://www.kingjamesbibleonline.org/1-Kings-Chapter-12/

There are parallels to the story of King Rehoboam and our American President.  This is not about the intelligence flank, nor what is discussed in secure compartments, nor is it about what is viewed in the Situation Room.  But it is about human foibles, grand ambitions, and movement away from normative global interactions and institutional memory.  King Rehoboam leaned into the immature chattering of his companions and clutched it like pearls.  The results were disastrous.

It was a heady moment for Americans when President Trump announced there had been a successful strike on Iran's nuclear facilities (Operation Midnight Hammer).  We were shown the images of our massive bombers... the craters left in the ridges of the mountain ranges... the important news that all our military members had returned safely to their duty stations.

Seeking further "wins", the Department of State was dispatched to seek concessions from the Islamic Republic of Iran regarding their nuclear enrichment program.   The work of diplomacy is nuanced and with soft layers.  At least that is the manner in which it is meant to unfold for the public view whilst what happens in the back channels of diplomacy might have rougher edges.  Unfortunately, President Trump treated the process like he was unfolding dirty diapers as opposed to carefully mitering the corners of a few bed sheets.  Within a small window of time, he just determined that rather than smell the shit for a bit longer,  rather than allow the State Department to launder out the details a bit more, he would just embark on destroying the "shits" who represented the will of the Iranian State.  Who needs diplomacy when you have a military which can mount complex military operations across the globe?

When engaging war, P3 is important.

Priority:  Was it a military priority at this moment in time to attack Iran?  Were we on the cusp of an imminent nuclear threat?

Patience:  Was it possible that patiently allowing more time to achieve desired outcomes would have brought benefit to both parties?   Or was it crucial an aerial campaign be mounted on 28 February?

Prudence:  Could we have sought out a more disciplined wisdom to approach negotiations in a less belligerent manner?

Who were the senior advisors - the men with three decades of military experience? And who functioned in junior status with decade level experience within the Pentagon?

What has happened cannot be changed. What happens next is of critical importance, because if this war continues along it comes down to a basic military plank of length x width.  As we continue to lengthen this conflict from an original promise of "four weeks", the width of the damage to our diplomatic status within the Gulf States and beyond will widen like one gigantic sinkhole.  

The UAE might be able to manage without their tourism industry and ex-pat community for a month.  But if in six  months their high rise apartments are vacant, their restaurants empty, stores shuttered, and swimming pools devoid of the usual "Influencer" wildlife - bilateral agreements with our nation may lie in shreds. There seems little need to address the effect on Bahrain... Qatar...  Saudia Arabia, etc.  I am not sure the concept of Force Majeur applies to international treaties.  But I do know what we have hoisted upon the region is not an "act of God". It is based on the actions of the one man.

Apparently, the chastisement of the whip was not enough.  We will continue to release the aerial scorpions.

Added to post: 10:26 p.m. Death of adults with Down's Syndrome.

Some sites have had this specific video scrubbed. Other sites have disappeared. We are not meant to see such things.  I located and viewed the video. The video appears legitimate.  And if true, one of our missiles hit a cafe which employs adults with Down's Syndrome.  Several of them have lost their lives.  We need to discuss this.  And we need to discuss the 165 little girls and their ten instructors who lost their lives on 28 February. If we are unwilling to discuss this, then we show ourselves lacking in compassion.