Iran:  Predictive Analysis

Generally speaking, I release predictive analysis after many months of research and measurement of what I call "emotional pulse".  These predictions reach far into the future-scape of the actions of our adversaries. 

The compressed and escalating operational tempo for activities by the United States against Iran and a concurrent politico-intellectual hardening within the Iranian quarterdeck cause me to place a few thoughts on the page tonight in what is a "streaming consciousness" manner.  So take it as such.  I am writing my thoughts -  and listening to music.  smile

Very quietly, after the assassination of the Grand Ayatollah and a smallish flurry of additional assassinations, the IRGC began to strengthen and interlock their chain of command by placing directly underneath each senior leader 3-7 additional military members to take their places - should they also receive death's calling card.  This is important to take note of - because whilst Daily Mail honks loudly about Iran having a million-man standing army, the truth is that uninterrupted chain of command decisions are of much greater importance than numerical troop strength.

Iran is also currently placing pressure on the U.S. by now refusing all one-way communications sent via any second party seeking to start a conversation.  All communication channels are currently closed.  And for their part, I am taking note of a high level of cogent communications coming off channels and X.  Iran is messaging in a very, very consistent manner regarding their will to hold the line.

Predictive Analysis:

The level of determination being exhibited by the IRGC does anchor the fact that (unlike President Trump wrote on "Truth Social")  we are not dealing with a lunatic nation, but a highly skilled and motivated chain of command which cannot be expected to bend nor yield to the demands of our nation.

Should we escalate to a miniaturized footprint of an invasion, anticipate a human cost which will become unacceptable to the American public.   

We (who serve) understand the nature of oath-keeping.  I also took the oath and served as a LCDR in Fleet Hospital Dallas, USNR.   Each one of us are willing to sacrifice our lives for the defense of our nation.  But the civilian "We the People" are also aware of our sacrifices; and prefer the cost be in drops and not gallons.  It is possible that the gallons will flow.  And when that happens, Americans quickly take note.  Thirteen flag-draped arrivals at Dover AFB have already been watched over carefully by the viewing public.   But should the number increase - especially with one horrific sentinel event - public sentiment can quickly turn.  And that sentiment will be quickly addressed by our elected representatives. They represent our voice.  I believe that any ground invasion will be met with fierce resistance and perhaps military innovation of which we are unaware of.

Should it become too bloody an endeavor, I fear my nation will suffer a chemical attack.  I am looking for such a signal; and as yet, have not taken note of it.  Yes.  We have our sensors which track such things.  Scary version?  A chemical which we do not also hold in reserve at Fort Detrick.  Anything is possible... and we are only limited by our own imaginations.  It is hard to track what you don't know exists, now isn't it?

Eventually, the Strait of Hormuz will re-open for business.  But what is being called the children's tea tax is a reminder that when corrupted, outdated intelligence allowed for a 28 February strike on a girl's school with the death of 165 girls between the ages of 5-7,  the Iranians have a full intention to use this "toll" as a means of compensation for the loss of life.  Yes, there was tea in the satchels of some of the little girls.  None will pay more dearly for this passage than the merchant ships flying under the flag of the United States.

Our Gulf State flanks will see an escalation against them with strategic targeting against their own energy and supply infrastructures the second the parachutes of our 82nd Airborne Division billow out over the Iranian landscape.  If you lead from the front, but your flanks are damaged - the leadership does not count for much. 

There is an exit ramp, of course.  But it is not palatable to our Department of War, nor to our POTUS.  It involves quite simply, an unimaginable humiliation:  a complete stand down of hostilities on our side and then the more difficult work of repairing the damage to our flanks.  That alone, will take years.

This will not happen.  Humility has never been our strong suit.  So I am just here on the bleachers with the rest of you:  watching history unfold.  What a history it will be....  But as always, my prayers are extended for our Republic and the men and the women in uniform who serve at the will of our Commander-in-Chief.

swoffordwrites@gmail.com