Predictive Analysis: Attack on Iran

Entering the quarterdeck for briefing:

* Written three months ago by a female college sophomore using AI tools.  (At least, that is how it reads to me.)

"Conflict remains the Middle East’s most troublesome dynamic, but there is today less to this problem than headlines might lead one to believe. Iran—the region’s chief destabilizing force—has been greatly weakened by Israeli actions since October 7, 2023, and President Trump’s June 2025 Operation Midnight Hammer, which significantly degraded Iran’s nuclear program." p 28

"But the days in which the Middle East dominated American foreign policy in both long-term planning and day-to-day execution are thankfully over—not because the Middle East no longer matters, but because it is no longer the constant irritant, and potential source of imminent catastrophe, that it once was."  p 29

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf

What changed?  And why now?

The Annual Threat Assessment of the Intelligence Community was released exactly one year ago.  It reads better than the aforementioned.  But only six paragraphs are devoted to the topic of Iran.  This  sentence caught my attention:

"Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei continues to desire to avoid embroiling Iran in an expanded, direct conflict with the United States and its allies." p 22

https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2025-Unclassified-Report.pdf

What changed? And why now?

Leaving the quarterdeck and entering the Intellectual Battlespace for Debriefing:

After 9/11 I embarked on reading three transliterations of the Qur'an.  And then I began reading the works of notable Islamic scholars.  

The best compact little book on my shelf is,  "Principles of Government and State in Islam" by  Muhammad Asad.  This man was born Leopold Weiss in the Polish city of Lvov in 1900.  His grandfather was an Orthodox Rabbi.  A poly-lingual journalist, he later converted to Islam. This book is considered a "rough draft" which preceded the actual textual content chosen for the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. He was a purist regarding the Qur'an and Sunnah.  And I have found this small selection a valuable addition to my personal library.

There is the disclaimer, of course, as I offer this analysis.  I no longer hold a Top Secret security clearance, and when I served in Fleet Hospital Dallas my officer designator was for the Nurse Corps.  I only knew one thing that was "Top Secret" and it involved our actions in Korea in the 1950's.  That briefing... was a snooze because the information was antiquated and no longer relevant.

But what I do know, and understand deeply, is the terrain of the Islamic mind.  And in looking at Iran's nuclear capabilities, munitions and missile stockpiles, perhaps our miscalculation involves understanding how  a legal Islamic Shi'a state led by a Grand Ayatollah responds in time of war.  And it certainly matters that in the first wave of strikes approximately 85 school age girls lost their lives.

The Grand Ayatollah left behind four distinct fatawa related to Jihad should he be assassinated.  These documents, will now be in full force, no differently than the Executive Orders of our POTUS remain in force until rescinded by a successor.  I would absolutely love to read all four. It would probably scare the life out of me. But... the concern is isotopes - because the grandfather of Prophet Muhammad was saved by a barrage of isotopes sent by Allah. And the secondary concern is a biological threat - because it is also mentioned in the Qur'an as a form of Divine retribution. Regardless, Iran is doing a bang up job of beating back our ambitions with conventional weaponry.

Islam is state.  It is a state with a mandated religion.  But it is first and foremost a form of governance. Throw the Shi'a sect into the mix, and it becomes a super state.  The Shi'a not only have wire in the blood but they have the dust of Karbala in their veins.  They rely on the textual documents of the state, which are the Qur'an and Sunnah.  But there is also strong reliance on the paranormal... the mystical... the occult powers and prophetic which are associated with their beliefs.   All of this, is coming into play right now, in real time.

So what changes for us now?  Let's move into truncated Predictive Analysis.

Anticipate additional events like the terrorism that hit Texas early in the morning of March 1st:

https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2026/03/01/3-dead-17-hospitalized-in-6th-street-mass-shooting-austin-ems-chief-says/

The Islamic terrorist was wearing a hoodie which said "Property of Allah", a T-shirt with an Iranian flag,  a Qur'an  was in his vehicle, and pictures of the Iranian leadership adorned his home.  And yet - we appear to still be seeking a "motive".  sigh

CAIR churns out their usual denial statement.  But the fact is that somewhere in the United States there are additional Muslims who will be planning ambush attacks.  And yes, they will pray to their God before the shooting begins.   And the fact is that it is never Peter, Paul or John who engage these violent spree killing events, and there is no Bible on the seat of the car.  Islam - refuses to take ownership of their problem.  So it might fall to us to become stakeholders in processes which minimize risk.  That would be right now. 

https://www.statesman.com/news/local/article/bufords-austin-6th-street-shooting-21948608.php

Trump's administration has created a crisis of confidence and a diplomatic crisis because of the manner in which this course of action has brought the shit across the thresholds of our "Abraham Accord" allies.  I believe there is a destruction of good will with each apartment building, hotel, airport, and neighborhood which suffers under an attack because of Iran's acts of vengeance. And I have seen plenty of videos - quite a few more than you will see on MSM.  

I have to ask the question again:  Will my nation contribute to the demolition and rebuilding of edifices destroyed by Iranian missile and drone strikes? The silly statement, "You have a bright future... that is already behind you" might apply to President Trump.  He thought Iran was an ordinary petting zoo. But it is inhabited by dragons.

China will also leverage this situation for benefit.  They will see opportunity in this disaster. And that opportunity will be economic.

There will be an ongoing destabilization process within the Gulf States. Bahrain comes to mind because of a robust Shi'a population.   Iraq also has a Shi'a majority within her borders. I believe Iraq, in particular, will witness a growth in terror training camps.   The same may hold true for Pakistan -which has shown a steady diligence in dealing with these issues since 9/11.  I have admiration for Pakistan's ISI.  They have a difficult duty and it might become more difficult.

I mention Pakistan, because I just viewed a document which shows the many protesters who were shot protesting at the American Embassy in Karachi.  The SSMB Institute of Trauma, Civil Hospital of Karachi has a page titled, "List of Gunshot @ U.S. Embassy, Karachi, Sindh. I see a total of 24 gunshot injuries.  We have made a mess for Pakistan to clean up, haven't we?

What about Bahrain?  What are their feelings right about now? This is the U.S. Naval Support Base.

The United Arab Emirates?    Two Shahed-136 took out one of their oil platforms in the Persian Gulf. And a THAAD radar system was destroyed too.

I am seeing a level of precision in the strikes which is a bit frightening.  And then again - the massive explosion at the U.S. Air Force Weapons Depot in Erbil. 

Iranian leadership has not magically disintegrated.  It is merely undergoing a reconstitution.  The Temporary Leadership Council just had their second session, with President Masoud Pezeshkian, Head of the Judiciary, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni- Eje'i, and Arefi, a member of the Guardian Council in attendance.

And to add insult to injury, images of the flag-draped caskets of our American military being returned are in circulation now. There is also a wildly popular video with the image of one of our soldiers crying within a bit of a shelled out building. Nobody - wants to see that one.

So we are left with a greatly increased ThreatCon on U.S. soil, diplomatic crisis and diplomatic ill-will, and what the Grand Ayatollah warned us would happen, has come to pass.  We in single-handed manner created a regional war.  And did I mention that Lebanon is now shooting missiles at Israel?

There is no win.  Absolutely none.   Not only did we not move the needle, it is now wobbling wildly. Ideally, the administration would admit to a miscalculation and call it a day.  That will not happen, so there will be more misery to follow.