When the Canopy is Instructed by the Sea


Nestled in the town of Fredericksburg, stands a legacy to a unique man and the sailors who served under his command.   It is still known as "The Admiral Nimitz Museum" among the locals. I have visited the site and contained within the space is a beautiful photographic history of both Admiral Nimitz and the actions of the Pacific Fleet during World War II.   

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Museum_of_the_Pacific_War

This museum stands as a reminder that long before the Wright brothers placed their first prototype in the air, the laws of the sea were already established and the traditions of the sea were lauded in Homer's "Odyssey",  Ovid's "The Serpents Teeth", and of course, the beloved classic "Moby-Dick" by Herman Melville.   Captain Ahab's pursuit of the great white sperm whale culminates with a chase along the Pacific Ocean and the outcome is a majestic reminder that when it is man against the sea - the sea usually wins.

I believe our POTUS - who is not a military man, and certainly not a (former) Naval officer, as myself - forgot a very important principle.  The canopy is always instructed by the sea. It has always been the case. And threatening to "Bomb the hell" out of Iran might mean that for a season our Air Force and Naval airships will continue to put on quite the show.  But there is the pesky little issue of the Strait of Hormuz, which is the iron lock on the necklace around the throat of the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.

We forgot to secure the lock and Iran has the key.

Let's move into Predictive Analysis and what I believe will occur on the domestic front.  

What President Trump decides to do now (and I mean today!) will determine the outcome of mid-term elections in November.  I believe that for every week this campaign/war is continued that individual incumbent Republicans seeking to defend their turf will lose 0.5 percentage points in the popular vote in November.   Let me make it simple.  We will see a direct correlation between weeks and percentages. This is simple math, folks.

Consider Republican Ryan Mackenzie from Pennsylvania's 7th district.  He took the seat in 2024 by one percentage point over the Democratic incumbent, Susan Wild.   In a mere two weeks, any future advantage will dissipate more quickly than it took Captain Ahab to lose his leg.  Congressman Mackenzie might consider casting a fishing net for a job as a lobbyist in the future.

What about the 2024 elections?  The Republicans managed to hold onto the House majority, but several races were determined by margins under 1%.  Two weeks.  Their fortunes are already changing.

The margins of losses for the Republicans will increase in proportion to the numerical number of weeks that our POTUS continues on this ill-advised course of action.  He didn't secure the lock.  And while the canopy of the White House is secure, there might be a sea change during the mid-terms.  The sky is no match for the power of a sea change which does not include fair winds and following seas.



 

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