The Back Channels



As Field Marshal Asim Munir (Pakistan's COAS) entered Iranian airspace today he was escorted by Iran's fighter jets.  Once on the ground, he was greeted by Iran's Foreign Minister.  His job is to function as a sensitive channel; a means for constructing frameworks and agreements for future negotiations.

The UAE has also quietly functioned as a back channel with China.  The overture to cooperate as part of a coalition of the willing against Iran was met with firm resistance.

The cessation of Israel's targeting of Lebanon remains as a red line for Iranian negotiations to move forward.  Because while Syria is a vital "land bridge" for Iran's aspirations, Lebanon (and HizbAllah) are seen as pivotal geopolitical pressure points which strengthen Iran's strategic interior. Iran intends to protect their asset.

There are rumors - that all U.S. troops based in Syria will soon be leaving the region.  And Iraq is quietly "in flux" seeking to establish herself as a vital energy artery and important geopolitical corridor even as the pressures mount against both Iraq and Yemen. 

The problem is that everyone wants something from this cluster; but not all goals are cogent and similar in nature.  And certainly,  what looked like simple geographic geometry is beginning to look like geographic trigonometry.   A lot of lines and designs.  War is ultimately reduced to profiteering.   And everybody wants skin in the game.

There is one issue which we absolutely do not understand - and it is that an alternative geopolitical architecture is already moving into play among the nations which support Shi'a majorities.  There is a concept known as "Party of the Wind".  Basically, the rebel's flag is tied to the ship of state which is currently "winning".   So if Tehran is seen in the winners column, the flags will fly together, and in closer alignment to Tehran's goals. (Bahrain comes to mind.) These are the back channels of which we will be unaware.

Iran is undoubtedly taking advantage in the current lull in negotiations to strengthen their position with their Shi'a brethren.  There may be no real Grand Ayatollah in charge.  But the House of Ali remains.





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