"Leaks"


President Trump upset a well-understood tension; a balancing act - when attacking Tehran.  

Iran, in turn, put the hurt on the Sunni side of the house and we were unable to protect our Gulf allies.

Years ago I wrote a brief "Rise as One Man: Islam in the 21st Century".  (2007?)  The phrase "Rise as One Man" is from the covenant of Madinah.  I was mocked for my predictive analysis.  But essentially, if the Sunni side of the house and the Shi'a side were smart enough to lay down their differences - there would be Hell to pay for the rest of us.

Who is laughing now?  

When you manage to piss off everyone in the region - you end up with a movement away from  Assabiyya.  This concept was discussed in the Farewell Sermon of Prophet Muhammad.

So I am looking a "leaks" tonight. Now even if what is copied below is just happy clap, I tend to take it seriously.  We are damn well going to be marginalized in the Middle East.  The waterfall effect is that Russia and China will be strengthened even as we are weakened.





 The most dangerous item in the leaks is not military between Tehran and Riyadh…

but this: ▪️ Prohibiting the use of Saudi lands and bases for any attack or espionage against Iran ▪️ Reducing the American military presence near the Gulf ▪️ Refusing to deploy new American offensive systems And here begins the real sensitivity in Washington.
For the first time, a Gulf vision appears that implicitly states: "Regional security should not remain entirely dependent on America." And this is an enormous development. Especially after the recent war that made many in the Gulf recalculate the costs of traditional alliances.
It's also noteworthy that the agreement doesn't just focus on security… but on "preventing war" before it happens: ▪️ Direct military hotline ▪️ Joint committees ▪️ Omani or Qatari mediation ▪️ Preventing military miscalculation In other words, both sides are trying to build a mechanism for containing crises permanently, not just a temporary truce.
Economically, the items reveal something important: Riyadh and Tehran do not only want to reduce tensions… but to build interests that make a return to confrontation more costly for both sides. And this is exactly what Israel and some American pressure circles fear. Because regional stability reduces the need for an external military presence.
Summary: If these understandings truly develop, the issue will not be merely a political reconciliation. Rather, the beginning of reshaping the balance of power in the Persian Gulf: ▪️ Less American influence ▪️ Greater regional coordination ▪️ Broader Chinese and Russian roles ▪️ And Iran transforming from a "security file" to an indispensable regional partner

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