The Lies of Possibilities and the Poverty of Intentions


We can imagine certain possibilities which are attainable.  And for the lucky few, possibilities present as a unique gift.  But for the vast majority of us -  the lies of possibilities end up leaving us with the poverty of intentions.  Such is the case with President Donald J Trump.

He imagined that with a bifurcated political-military approach the Republic of Iran could be brought to its knees.  On the ground, there would be no troops.  The President did not want a robust body count from "Operation Epic Fury".  In January,  agitation propaganda ruled the day on the ground as we worked to stir the citizen-soldiers who latched onto a promise of hope that America would help the people of Iran free themselves of the Grand Ayatollah. This was parroted from not only the White House, but by members of Congress. But hope doesn't always float, except in the emotional realm. Hope can also plummet right off the cliff.

Fomenting agitation is a form of soft warfare which facilitates the toppling of a government without the expenditure of more than a handful of foreign actors.  As for the Iranians, estimates range from 5,000 to 40,000  for the number of citizens killed in January.  What we don't know, is how many protesters were hauled off to Evin Prison or more remote penal colonies.  But as I always say, "The statistics only count if it is you."

All of the aforementioned, was political confetti.  Period.  And it was a steady delivery of cheap shots.  By all of the usual suspects.

The President then imagined a successful bombing campaign which would strike fear into the chain of command in Tehran.  We successfully knocked off a few well-known military-political players from the stage, not understanding that within Islam it is not allowed to turn back from the battle, except to regroup and fight another day.  

The IRGC did a fairly quick job of regrouping with a new doctrine that for every significant level of leadership, seven additional members would be added beneath that individual so that there would be no break within any link in the chain of command should the one be assassinated.  It is a Hydra Doctrine of War with regenerative features.  No fuss nor political posturing.  The boss dies. You take over. You die. The one under you takes over. This takes positional and "by direction" authority to a new level.  One day, you are doing things "by direction".  The next day, your boss is snuffed.  You assume positional authority and the one under you functions "by direction".  How cool is that?!

Problematic, is that as President Trump has steadily sought to keep this war far below American's threshhold for tolerance of war,  it has become a war that is not properly engaged.  Iran - for her part - continues to flank and redraw the rules of engagement.  The latest Iranian attack on two Emirati super tankers is a case in point.

Saudi Arabia just might have miscalculated too - targeting the Sana'a Airport. Yemen is threatening to completely close the Bab al Mandab Strait. 

And as President Trump announces that the United States will target Iran's deepest underground nuclear facility, near Nantaz, this site location is constructed to a depth of greater than one hundred meters underground, within the "heart" of the mountain - and I am not hopeful regarding our success. If our last three attempts to take Kharg Island failed, I am not sure how we can lay claim to a possibility of success when launching this particular attack.  But then again - the lies of possibilities prevails.



Iran continues to issue warnings to ships in the Persian Gulf with VHF transmissions: "This is the Navy of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.  Captain, Sir, we are firing. I repeat, we are firing. Can you hear us?"  This might have been the last transmission heard by the Emirati vessels before they were fired upon. 

It seems Iran is adapting perfectly fine to our low-threshold war.  And while the President reminds us that "Everything is fine,"  I believe the opposite to be true.  The lies of possibilities - and specifically, the lie that the United States would be capable of assuming a custodial role over the affairs of the Republic of Iran - have not been realized.  We are left with the poverty of intentions.


And Iran - leaves us with this little artistic depiction tonight.


* As a Christian,  I like to remember that only God can speak things into existence by the power of His word.  Donald J Trump is not God.

 




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