Iran Shadow Boxing with the U.S.


Iran's Oil Minister has just announced they have discovered 7.5 trillion cubit feet of gas in southern Iran.   The discovery is accompanied by quantities of gas condensates, with a nouveau wealth estimated worth tens of billions of dollars.  This equals what one of the South Pars fields can supply for fifteen years.  Move over Russia.  Make way for Iran.

A second strong punch today regards the logistics of maritime traffic in the strait. No need to identify it, because the transliteration from Persian means "the mighty".  And we have certainly gotten ourselves in a mighty bind by not securing the choke point prior to beginning Operation Epic Flop.  One of the premiere ocean accounts (which track maritime navigation movements) currently show two Chinese flagged vessels - "New Wave" and the oil tanker "Music" - currently traversing the strait via Tehran's designated route for passage.

Iran's Waterway Management Authority reminds us/U.S. that ships which violate restrictions will face greater restrictions on a second attempt.  They encourage owners of goods heading to and from the Persian Gulf to review the list of ships in violation of passage.

Contrary to what is offered for consumption from the narrow and tightly controlled journalism straw, last week thirteen ships attempting to access the southern route were targeted and stopped. Alternative routes, such as the Red Sea are also facing the pressure.  Saudi Arabia's oil exports coming from Yanbu Commercial Port have dropped by a third. Kuwait is currently not engaged in exports, and the UAE is facing significant challenges as Iran is threatening to escalate her operational actions

The Iranian Health Minister just delivered his blow: Kapow!



Contrary to a popular narrative, medical supplies and equipment are still subject to sanctions.

The head-scratchers continue to pursue dreams of transnational pipelines but these will be cumbersome and require massive amounts of investment capital.  Pipelines and liquified gas carriers can take the brunt off of things,  but the Strait of Hormuz continues to be both trigger point and pressure point.

Qatar, which is the world's largest LNG producer,  lacks (obviously, duh!) an alternate route and the disruption in global energy markets will continue.  The UAE is flipping the coin between Washington and Tehran.  Errr... the UAE flips a lot of coins; whether it be Sudan, Russia... etc.  Every day is a magic show in Abu Dhabi.  It is a nation of high-risk gamblers, and they raffle a lot of arrows - which is forbidden.  wink

So we have now figured out that Strait of Hormuz cannot be reclaimed by military might. We just need some smarter people.  sigh   The world is highly interconnected now,  and Iran is taking advantage of our folly.  Consolidation of power is happening right under our noses.

It also kind of looks like Iran is posturing to withdraw from the NPT Treaty.   Mohsen Rezaei has signaled in  a recent interview that Iran  has a necessity to continue to move toward nuclear deterrence.... in other words, as in the words of the "Pink Panther" -  THE BUM!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7jLSLQBOwX4

Iran - puts out a little graphic:





Well - that is about it.  Calling it a day and settling in for some sort of a movie that will suck the brains cells right out of my head.

swoffordwrites@gmail.com





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