Yemen

It seems intuitive enough.  Instability complicates negotiations.  The Shi'a population also have a bearing on domestic political issues because the Shi'a have  a concept called "the party of the wind"; which they understand very well.   When in a minority position, they tie their allegiance to the rebel's mast if the rebel is winning.  But they easily switch sides as one party gains leverage and dominance over the other.  This action is partly based on cultural and historical interface regarding their survival in a Sunni-dominant nation.  They do not want to be on the receiving end of a purge.

Regarding the video of the home of the Sultan - which I viewed but did not include - it reminds me of scenes from when the RSF entered homes in Khartoum.  The home is empty, the occupants having fled for their lives. So once again, the internal instability will make negotiations difficult - and the ThreatCon against our diplomatic staff deserves another look. One of our weaknesses as a nation is to position ourselves in a place of strength when abroad; even if it means our diplomatic staff have to  flee in convoy from their compound - because power projection was the important component of the narrative.  We worry too much about the optics to the detriment of security.  Just what I have observed over the years... from Sudan... to Afghanistan... etc.   I worry - about our U.S. Mission in Yemen.  I never again, want to observe a U.S. Ambassador dragged along the streets of a foreign city.  Especially if the images are coming off Al Qaeda feeds.

https://ye.usembassy.gov/

"An hour ago, we discussed the entry of Yemeni army forces, led by Ansar Allah, into various parts of Taiz and the siege of Taiz. This map is of course not updated, but it shows the general situation in the Taiz region. The Yemeni army, led by Ansar Allah, shattered the defensive lines of Taiz city with simultaneous attacks from three directions. Two weeks ago, the main supply line in Taiz was cut off, and now, all remaining areas north of this line are being encircled. Soon, the mercenaries will flee from the mountains toward the south—well, they are fleeing—and those who cannot escape will surrender or be destroyed. Usually, Ansar Allah provides an escape route from the siege to prevent the slaughter of people and avoid ground warfare."

"This grand emirate you see in the video is actually the home of Sultan al-Barqani, the president of the House of Representatives of the parliament loyal to the Saudi- and UAE-backed puppet government in the upscale Yian district of Taiz, which has been seized by the Yemeni army led by Ansar Allah.

The fighting has crossed the city's gates, and areas adjacent to the city's core are being liberated—for example, some areas like the al-Safiya region in the al-Shamayatin district and the police station there have fallen into the hands of the Yemeni army led by Ansar Allah. The Yemeni army led by Ansar Allah has now cut off the main Taiz–al-Turba–Aden road. This means the southern supply route into the city is effectively closed, and Taiz is under siege pressure from its three previous sides plus the south—meaning it is completely besieged. This has been Ansar Allah's core policy for the siege of Taiz. Currently, the intense fighting is mostly concentrated on the Jabal Han axis (west of the city), Hudran, and the western outskirts.

If everything goes as planned, Taiz will soon be liberated without a single bullet fired—unless the mercenary forces decide to take the city's people hostage and resort to slaughter again, in which case the Yemeni army will have no choice but to launch a hard entry."